Modeling, Spatial, Statistics

Professor Ira Longini (University of Florida), a PI in the MIDAS Network since 2004, is the lead on Research Project 1.

Investigators on Project 1 are based at University of Florida, FHCRC, University of Washington, and Northeastern University. 

The main objective is to develop, validate, and implement mathematical and statistical models for the transmission of naturally occurring infectious diseases and bioterrorism agents. These models will be used to assess the effectiveness of various interventions to aid the distribution and allocation of resources in response to infectious disease outbreaks. 

 The objectives

  1. To develop of further develop mathematical and statistical models for important infectious disease threats, including influenza, cholera, dengue fever, TB, novel coronaviruses, and new emerging infectious diseases. This will involve the development of general models to understand the transmission of infectious diseases, as well as the development of specific models for each infectious disease studied.  
  2. To use the epidemic mathematical and statistical models to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions involving surveillance and containment, vaccination, antimicrobials, social distancing, and other control strategies for the infectious diseases in objective 1.
  3. To use and develop statistical methods to estimate the important parameters and variables from data available for the infectious diseases. These statistical models will include both novel and innovative likelihood and empirical, hierarchical Bayesian models, as well as MCMC methods.