July 1: morning
8:00-8:05 | Welcome : Betz Halloran
8:05-8:20 | Introductions
What are the most important endgame issues to be modeled, the most important parameters or relationships to be estimated, and the most important policy guidance to be provided? (Online material including the presentation and things that might come up in discussion to be provided one week before the workshop.)
8:20-8:25 | WHO research unit perspective
8:25-8:30 | Environmental surveillance perspective
8:30-8:35 | Global Polio Laboratory Network perspective
8:35-8:40 | Gates Foundation perspective
8:40-8:45 | Imperial college perspective
8:45-8:50 | Kid Risk perspective
8:50-8:55 | Institute for Disease Modeling perspective
8:55-9:00 | CIDID perspective
9:00-9:50 | Discussion
9:50-10:20 | Break
What are the implications of work by each modeling group with regard to how silent circulation could affect the polio eradication endgame?
10:20-12:00 | 10 minute Presentations by each of the four modeling groups with 15 minute discussions. (Online material including the presentation and things that might come up in discussion to be provided one week before the workshop.)
July 1: afternoon
Approaches to modeling, parameter estimation, and policy guidance during the endgame: This afternoon focuses on the logic of how models inform policy decisions and the methodology for constructing and analyzing models that inform policy. Each group is to illustrate their approach to making inferences that can guide endgame policy with a discussion of the overall philosophy of modeling used by the group and its advantages and disadvantages.
1:00-2:20 | 20 minute presentations with 20 minutes of discussion for two groups
2:20-2:50 | Break
2:50-4:10 | 20 minute presentations with 20 minutes of discussion for two groups
4:10-5:00 | Open discussion on how the different approaches taken could be made more complementary and informative
6:00 | Group Dinner (off-campus)
July 2: morning
Data availability, data collection priorities, data analysis methods and inference processes: Any presentations on any of these topics that any group wishes to make will be woven into the discussion format. Material for presentation and discussion should be supplied one week before the workshop.
8:00–9:40 | Discussion of what data the different groups have, the value that could be extracted from the data if it were more widely available to the scientific community, and what it would take to make this data more available.
9:40-10:10 | Break
10:10-12:00 | Discussion of modeling priorities, data collection priorities, and coordination between modeling groups and policy people to insure good decisions during the endgame.