Assessing the impact of travel restrictions on international spread of the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic

C. Poletto, M.F. Gomes, A. Pastore y Piontti, L. Rossi, L. Bioglio, D.L. Chao, I.M. Longini, M.E. Halloran, V. Colizza, A. Vespignani

Euro Surveillance

October 23, 2014


The quick spread of an Ebola outbreak in West Africa has led a number of countries and airline companies to issue travel bans to the affected areas. Considering data up to 31 Aug 2014, we assess the impact of the resulting traffic reductions with detailed numerical simulations of the international spread of the epidemic. Traffic reductions are shown to delay by only a few weeks the risk that the outbreak extends to new countries.