Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Corrado Gioannini, Maria Litvinova, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Luca Rossi, Xinyue Xiong, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini Jr., Alessandro Vespignani
January 17, 2020
ABSTRACT
Starting in December 2019, Chinese health authorities have been closely monitoring a cluster of pneumonia cases in the city of Wuhan, in Hubei Province. It has been determined that the pathogen causing the viral pneumonia among affected individuals is a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV)(1). As of January 17, 2020, 45 cases have been detected and confirmed in the region(2) with 3 additional cases detected and confirmed in Japan and Thailand(3; 4). The source of the outbreak is still unknown, however investigations have identified environmental samples that tested positive for 2019-nCoV at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan city. Some of the most recent cases did not report exposure to animal markets, thus suggesting that human-to-human transmission, although limited, is possible. Considering the potential international threat that an outbreak of a novel virus like this one poses to the world, in this report we provide a modeling analysis of the risk of dissemination of 2019- nCoV infections. By using the cases detected outside China, we also provide estimates of the potential outbreak size in Wuhan as of January 17th, 2020.